‘Decisive shift in the housing market’: San Diego falls in U.S. price growth rankings

San Diego’s home price dropped for the first time in two years in a closely watched housing index.

The San Diego metropolitan area’s home price decreased 0.61% annually, said the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices report released this week. The last time prices were down year-over-year was June 2023.

Prices in most metro areas in the 20-city index were sluggish but varied considerably. For instance, New York metro area was up 7.03% annually, but Tampa was down 2.38%. Still, for the overall U.S. market, the pace of price appreciation was its slowest in two years.

Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said sales were slow in June despite lower mortgage rates (compared to earlier in the year) and more homes on the market. She said home inventory growth, largely because homes are taking longer to sell, could cause more markets to see price drops later in the year.

“Buyers will have more leverage in many, but not all, markets,” Sturtevant said. “Sellers will need to adjust price expectations to reflect the transitioning market.”

The average for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.77% in the last week of June, according to Freddie Mac. That’s down from a high this year of 7.04% in mid-January, and the latest data shows an average of 6.58%.

The Case-Shiller index tracks repeat sales of identical single-family houses — and are seasonally adjusted — as they turn over through the years. It is often seen as a bellwether of the economy as a whole.

San Diego County’s median home price for single-family homes in June was $1 million, said Attom Data Solutions, remaining one of the most expensive markets in the nation. The median is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less.

“June’s results mark the continuation of a decisive shift in the housing market, with national home prices rising just 1.9% year-over-year,” said Nicholas Godec, of the S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Some in the real estate industry are hopeful the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated in a late August speech that he was open to slashing rates, something that could lower borrowing costs for everything from cars to houses.

Mortgage rates usually follow the yields on mortgage-backed securities. These bonds typically track the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury. It’s not always a guarantee mortgage rates will increase or fall after a move by the Fed, but real estate agents are hopeful.

San Diego ranked No. 17 in the 20-city index, its lowest showing since March 2023 when prices were down 5.3% in a year. San Diego was last in first place in April 2024 when prices rose 10.3% in a year.

Annual price growth by metropolitan area

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, June 2025

New York: 7.03%Chicago: 6.09%Cleveland: 4.47%Detroit: 4.32%Boston: 4.25%Charlotte: 2.55%Minneapolis: 2.51%Las Vegas: 2.41%Washington, D.C.: 2.17%Portland: 1.01%Atlanta: 0.94%Seattle: 0.90%Los Angeles-Anaheim: 0.08%Phoenix: -0.06%Miami: -0.25%Denver: -0.55%San Diego: -0.61%Dallas: -0.95%San Francisco: -1.98%Tampa: -2.38%

National: 1.89%